Originally this Web Site was prepared for a possible Avian Flu Pandemic.
With the emergence of Swine Flu, we are retasking. Overall the same
information applies to all Flu Pandemics.
According to the experts we are completely unprepared for even a mild
pandemic and in many ways we are more vulnerable than we were in 1918.
Not withstanding the threat to human health, a pandemic will have far
reaching effects on every industry; from loss of productivity from
workforce absenteeism to the downstream effects of supply chain and
travel disruptions. Organizations should consider the effects of a
pandemic on their operations and adjust themselves accordingly.
Experience has shown us that paperwork and promises are insufficient to
deal with real world disasters. Robust, practiced and flexible processes
must be in place and operational at a moments notice.
It was a bright cold day in
April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.
George Orwell
No one can with any certainty state that the H1N1 strain of
Swine Influenza that is rapidly spreading throughout the world
will evolve to a pandemic form. We do not know the mortality rate
of a pandemic strain until it emerges, it may be relatively
mild, or as in the case of the 1918 virus, 8+% of the worlds
population died. There is also a
distinct possibility it could be much worse.
There is strong
evidence that the actual human infections and mortality are
under reported. Lab tests for viral infections are notoriously
unreliable. The false positives are not the problem; it is the
false negatives that are problematic. The WHO and CDC will only
confirm cases of infection by positive lab tests, regardless of
clinical presentation. For a rapidly developing problem this may
not be the best strategy. In many of the areas that H1N1 is
circulating there are additional problems with accurate
reporting. Many of the areas are quite remote and medical
knowledge and reporting is flawed. In many of the regions custom
forbids autopsy and requires the deceased be interred in 24
hours. There are also a multitude of additional constraints for
accurate reporting due to political and economic reasons. The
World Health Organization is doing a heroic effort to track and
contain the spread of H1N1; unfortunately they are under funded,
under equipped and under staffed. This is primarily due to the
political priorities of the funding nations. This attitude is
evident not only on an international level, but extends to
national, state and regional levels. Unfortunately when they do
act, it is already too late.