It was a bright cold day in
April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.
George Orwell
No one can with any certainty state that the h5n1 strain of
Avian Influenza that is rapidly spreading throughout the world
will evolve to a pandemic form. We do know that it is constantly
mutating with alarming speed. Some of these mutations have
allowed it to infect humans and many other mammals. In some
cases there is strong evidence that it is being transmitted from
human to human. It has also demonstrated that it is extremely
lethal; so far, roughly half of the confirmed cases of human
infection resulted in death. We do not know the mortality rate
of a pandemic strain until it emerges, it may be relatively
mild, or as in the case of the 1918 virus, 8+%. There is also a
distinct possibility it could be much worse.
There is strong
evidence that the actual human infections and mortality are
under reported. Lab tests for viral infections are notoriously
unreliable. The false positives are not the problem; it is the
false negatives that are problematic. The WHO and CDC will only
confirm cases of infection by positive lab tests, regardless of
clinical presentation. For a rapidly developing problem this may
not be the best strategy. In many of the areas that h5n1 is
circulating there are additional problems with accurate
reporting. Many of the areas are quite remote and medical
knowledge and reporting is flawed. In many of the regions custom
forbids autopsy and requires the deceased be interred in 24
hours. There are also a multitude of additional constraints for
accurate reporting due to political and economic reasons. The
World Health Organization is doing a heroic effort to track and
contain the spread of h5n1; unfortunately they are under funded,
under equipped and under staffed. This is primarily due to the
political priorities of the funding nations. This attitude is
evident not only on an international level, but extends to
national, state and regional levels. Unfortunately when they do
act, it is already too late.
Of all the developed
countries, the United States lags far behind. It is a bit
puzzling why the “leader of the free world” is so far behind.
Perhaps we have lived our lives too vicariously, too many
trivial pursuits and distractions. Perhaps we lack substantial
leadership, reluctant to move without polling the wind’s
direction. A handful of communities are moving forward, but for
the most part a few contingency plans have been placed on paper
to be scattered to the first breeze.
The problem lies
primarily with how our system of government has evolved. Power
lies in the hands of political appointees whose sensitivity is
maintaining their positions, adverse to risk. Career public
servants, dependant on their merit for employment, have been
over the years relegated to the lower echelons of analysis and
policy making. We are seeing the disaster of ideology trumping
competence unfolding on a daily basis.
Ideologues are
generally not meritorious administrators; by their nature they
lack flexibility of thought and imagination. When the only tool
you have is a hammer, the world appears to be a collection of
nails. It is not to say that many of those who hold the public
trust are worthy and capable individuals, only time will tell.
Unlike many in the
community of nations, we have never had to dig our selves out of
the rubble. This is a primary reason the business community has
for the most part dismissed the threat that a pandemic poses.
American businesses have evolved in a very nurturing environment
and have a tendency to attribute their success to the prowess of
an enlightened management class. The truth is that the business
community is quite vulnerable. To meet demands of investors many
businesses have adopted policies of lean manufacturing, just in
time delivery of critical supplies.
Warehouses are no more
than the flow of semi trucks. Small disruptions in a supply
chain will have disastrous consequences and quickly disrupt a
substantial portion of the economy. There is very little surge
capacity in any sector of our economy. The lack of surge
capacity extends into essential services and most critically the
health care infrastructure. For example, most pharmacies
maintain a minimal stock of essential medicines, this reduces
their inventory costs. Deliveries from warehouses are determined
by daily or weekly averages. Warehousing suppliers use the same
techniques to schedule deliveries from manufacturers, who once
again schedule deliveries of raw materials from other
manufacturers and so on. Localized excess demands are quickly
absorbed and life goes on. It’s a wonderful system within a
stable environment. Everyone schedules production and deliveries
with mathematical precision. For example imagine a sudden demand
for a life saving antibiotic; not a small regional blip, but a
massive 100 fold demand nationwide, for that matter world wide.
Local and regional distribution networks are soon exhausted of
supplies.
Now imagine that the
essential components to manufacture those antibiotics are
imported from countries that are having the same problems we are
experiencing; catastrophic disruptions in their own businesses.
Lets add additional factors. One out of three of the work force
is sick; this means truckers, chemists, technicians, management,
warehouse employees, pharmacists and doctors. Utility companies
and communication providers are experiencing the same
disruptions. Police and fire departments are short staffed. In a
matter of days life saving drugs are no longer available. The
entire system collapses; even under the best of circumstances it
would take months if not years to ramp up production.
The facts are clear
and simple; there is a distinct possibility that we are facing a
threat far greater than any act of terror, war, hurricane or
flood we have ever experienced in centuries. Even a mild
outbreak of a Pandemic strain of h5n1 will be like thousands of
Katrinas crashing to shore. Traditional thought process and
problem solving are not sufficient to meet this challenge.
To begin with we must
focus our attention on real threats. Your chance of dying from
an act of terrorism is less than 1 out of a billion; by dog
bite, 1 out of 20 million; from plane crash, 1 out of 2
thousand; automobile accident, 1 out of 100 and from h5n1 if it
goes pandemic like 1918, 1 chance out of 10. In other words,
your chance of dying during an outbreak of Pandemic Influenza is
a 100 million times greater risk than an act of terrorism.
We have spent over 1
trillion dollars preventing terrorism and it’s climbing by a
billion dollars every day. Barely 100 million dollars has been
targeted for pandemic preparation. Your life is worth a little
more than 25 cents. We have been systematically
desensitized to real emergencies. Our media entertains us with
disaster films where at the last moment the threat is vanquished
and we walk off into the dawn. Politicians bang the drum of fear
with the cadence of a wind up monkey. Billions of dollars are
squandered with every beat. “Wolf” has been cried so many times
that no one listens and flips the channel … comfortably numb to
the real threats.
As I write this, h5n1
has made its debut in Sub-Saharan Africa, literally exploding
across the country. It has invaded Western Europe and continues
to fulminate in Asia. There is little or no medical or
veterinarian infrastructures in Africa to monitor it’s spread or
oversee it’s check. The farmers are slaughtering sick birds and
marketing them to a sizable population that is severely
immuno-compromised from the scourge of HIV. H5n1 respects no
boundary.
The daily toll of
human life steadily mounts in Central and Southern Asia: China,
Cambodia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Indonesia and
Azerbaijan. It has already touched the shores of Europe:
Scotland, England, Germany, Denmark, France, Austria, Greece,
Italy and Cyprus. It has appeared in Eastern Europe: Bulgaria,
Georgia, Ukraine, Russia, Slovenia, Poland and Bulgaria and it
advances through the Middle East: Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
and Iran. Most recently: Egypt, Ethiopia, Niger and Nigeria. It
is a problem unlike any we have ever faced. It is going to
require new ways of solving new problems. It is going to require
imagination and flexibility in planning and operationalizing
those plans. It is going to require the cooperation of a broad
spectrum of the human race. Shiny loafers can not do the work of
muddy boots. We have to put aside the partisan politics that
have been craftily devised to fragment us. Cultural and
religious differences mean little when we all are battling for
common survival. The rich will die as easily as the poor.
Pandemics don’t discriminate based on race, creed or color.
For
h5n1 all men are created equal.
Preparing
your
Organization for a Pandemic, Part
1
9/11, Earthquakes,
Fires, Floods and Katrina; we live in an uncertain world. Some
disasters we can prevent; some we can mitigate and others we
must endure; none we can ignore. Risk management can be
reactive or proactive. When a fire breaks out, use the fire
extinguisher, of course there has to be a working fire extinguisher
within reach.
History tells that
many times we have been scourged by widespread infectious
diseases, some have been pushed back by Health Practices and
Medical Technologies, yet even then we see periodic outbreaks
on such a scale to be called Pandemics.
There is one particular class of virus that we have little
control over; the Influenza Type A Virus. Every year many
strains of this virus circle the globe. Some variations cause
what we term seasonal flu, harvesting a quarter million souls,
world wide. Some variations pass almost unnoticed. Every once
in a while a variety emerges that is a monster, decimating the
human race, as it did in 1918. We are now faced with a strain of Avian Influenza,
h5n1 that has all the hallmarks of making a significant impact
on human history. The straight truth is that we are no better
prepared than we were in 1918, and a whole lot more
vulnerable. The best we can do is prepare for the worst
and hope for the best. We have nowhere to
run!
Impact on
the Business Community
"All the other
catastrophes we've had in the world in recent years at the
very most put screen doors on our borders. This would seal
shut a six-inch steel door,“ Michael
Osterholm
"You're just going
to have to be strong enough to keep your head down for a
year,“
Richard Branson,
Virgin Group
Chinese Officials
have already stated that if h5n1 goes pandemic they will seal
their borders.
Even a Pandemic of
moderate intensity will bring the global business community to
it’s knees … many business will never recover. It will not be
business as usual. The disruption of global supply chains,
loss of outsourced supplies, development processes and
manufacturing and the collapse of export markets will be the
downside of Globalization. Every Wal-Mart store will be
stripped clean in a matter of
weeks.
In a December
letter to business leaders, the heads of three federal
departments urged companies to develop specific plans for
protecting employees and maintaining operations during a
crisis. "Companies that provide critical infrastructure
services, such as power and telecommunications, also have a
special responsibility to plan for continued operation,"
stated the letter, which was signed by the secretaries of
commerce, homeland security, and health and human services.
"Having a contingency plan is
essential."
One third of the
American Workforce will be unable to work for months, another
third or more will refuse to come to work, afraid of exposure.
Transportation systems will be severely impacted by lack of
drivers and quarantines. Just in time supply chains will
collapse, markets will dry up.
In a recent survey
by Deloitte
Center
for Health Solutions and The ERISA Industry
Committee:
“Sixty-six percent
of respondents said their company had not adequately planned
to protect itself from a pandemic flu outbreak, while 14
percent said they had adequately planned and 20 percent were
undecided.”
“Fifty-eight
percent said they are not confident their company is prepared
to manage a pandemic flu outbreak, while 18 percent said they
are confident they are prepared and 24 percent were
undecided.”
“Seventy-three
percent said their company could use help understanding what
it should do to plan for a pandemic flu outbreak, while 14
percent said they did not need help and 13 percent were
undecided.”
“Thirty-nine
percent believed there wasn’t much a company could do to
prepare itself for a pandemic flu outbreak, while 41 percent
disagreed with that statement and 20 percent were
undecided.”
What Organizations
are doing
Many companies,
responding to an ever increasing risk to their business
operations, are developing and putting into place strategies
to protect operations, ensure workforce safety, arrange for
alternate work sites, and mitigate disruptions in the supply
& distribution chain. There is a disturbing trend I see
developing, the over reliance on models based on a
biodisaster. Biodisasters refer to local outbreaks of a
pathogen due to accident or intentional release, such as
anthrax. Biodisasters are local disruptions embedded in a
stable global environment, Pandemic are global disruptions.
The rules of the game are entirely different. Using the wrong
play sheet will be a disaster in it’s
self.
The key to
Organizational Survival is Robustness and Flexibility
“In preparing for
battle I have always found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable”
Dwight D
Eisenhower
“No plan survives
contact with the enemy” Moltke
Rapid
Organizational Change, a New
Strategy.
Traditionally
organizational change is effected in the axiomatic framework
of contemporary educational theories. Unfortunately the axioms
rarely align with the neurolinguistic foundations of behavior.
The result of the
incremental model is a compartmentalized collection of spoon
sized bites, impossible to functionalize except in a highly
artificial textual environment, a very inefficient approach to
solving problems in a highly complex contextual world.
Knowledge acquisition, integration and deployment are
nonlinear process, quite unlike the linear incremental models
embedded in current practices. A fortress mentality is a
recipe for failure. Flexibility of thought and planning is
crucial to survival.
Organizational
processes, strategies and problem solving techniques that have
evolved in a stable low risk environment are counterproductive
in an unstable high risk environment. A bio-disaster on the
global scale of a pandemic is an event without precedent in
modern history. We have few guidelines or experience with a
disruption of this magnitude. Plans, be they Business
Continuity or Risk Mitigation at the best are rough maps, the
essential component is “planning”, a continuous process. There
is no template for survival, only processes to mitigate risk.
Many organizations will crash and burn. Some will survive,
heavily damaged and some will actually flourish. Those that
survive will be characterized by their abilities to pre-adapt
to projected risks and respond quickly to unpredictable
change.
[WhiteSpider]
Part 2 will
introduce A Dynamic Approach to Organizational
Survival
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